Hello everyone,
The purpose of this letter is to inform you about the current situation of the crypto-asset market as well as recent news in this field. This letter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.
News
Spot Ethereum ETF: Towards an approval as early as July 4th by the US SEC? The cryptocurrency market is poised for another major turning point with the SEC's imminent approval of spot Ethereum ETFs. Are we about to witness a democratization of investment in Ethereum by the start of summer?
–
The SEC is dropping its investigation into Ethereum (ETH), according to Consensys. A «major victory» reported by blockchain company Consensys. The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) has reportedly confirmed it is dropping its investigation into Ethereum (ETH). The status of the second-largest blockchain was indeed weighing in the balance. What are the conclusions to be drawn?
–
Latin America's largest bank now allows all of its customers to buy cryptocurrencies. Latin America's largest financial institution, Itaú Unibanco, has announced that its clients can now invest in Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies.
–
Alloy by Tether: The stablecoin giant launches a new range of gold-backed assets. With its new range of synthetic stablecoins named Alloy by Tether, Tether intends to create overcollateralized stablecoins backed by gold. How do these new products work?
–
One of the largest banks in the world will soon allow its clients to trade Bitcoin and Ether. Standard Chartered, one of the world's largest banks, is preparing to launch a spot trading service for Bitcoin and Ether. It appears this initiative responds to the growing demand from institutional clients.
Fundamental Analysis
Source : https://www.coingecko.com/fr
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 61,341 $ (on 06/28/24).
The pre-euphoria phase?
The magnitude of unrealized profits held by long-term holders (LTHs) can serve as an indicator of their incentive to sell or buy tokens (Bitcoin) on the market. This psychological incentive can be visualized through the long-term holder net unrealized profit and loss (LTH-NUPL) metric.
As you can see below, we are currently at a level of around 0.66, which corresponds to the pre-euphoria phase (in green). Historically, this pre-euphoria level has been followed by phases of full euphoria, the final phase of a bull market cycle.
The euphoria phases generally lasted longer than the pre-euphoria phases (98 days vs. 182 days and 69 days vs. 89 days). Currently, we are 96 days into the pre-euphoria phase. If this trend continues, we can expect the euphoria phase to last at least as long, which would bring us to a peak in 96 days, or around November 2, 2024 at the earliest.
Glassnode
The regular breaths of bull markets
Glassnode highlighted market dynamics between capital inflows and outflows by comparing the cost bases of different investor cohorts.
The chart below shows capital inflows in green when the cost basis of 1-week to 1-month holders is higher than that of 1-to-3-month holders. This indicates positive demand dynamics, attracting new capital to the market.
Conversely, the chart highlights capital outflows when the cost basis of 1-week to 1-month holders falls below that of 1-month to 3-month holders. This structure signals a decline in demand momentum, resulting in a net outflow of capital from the asset.
During previous bull markets, a negative capital flow structure manifested itself up to five times. This means that it is entirely normal to observe periods of pause or consolidation within a bull market. We also note that this structure has been in place since May and early June, which suggests that we are likely in a phase of breathing room and consolidation toward former highs. This phenomenon is a positive sign for the upcoming trend. Indeed, the longer the consolidation, the more powerful the ensuing bullish euphoria phase could be.
Glassnode
A late-stage cycle?
Here is an analysis of Bitcoin token spending by long-term investors. The chart below highlights, by color, the holding periods of Bitcoin tokens.
For example, the purple color represents tokens that have not moved for more than 10 years. Although some of these tokens are likely lost, we are observing a decline in very long-term holders, indicating the beginning of selling on their part. This likely started with the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs, a major milestone offering an attractive exit opportunity.
The cycle is already well underway, but we believe we are currently in a breathing phase. We anticipate that the trough currently observed in the chart below will continue to deepen as the cycle progresses.
Glassnode
Our service
We offer a discretionary portfolio management service specializing in digital assets. We provide comprehensive, end-to-end human support in this space by personalizing your portfolio allocation according to your risk profile and situation.
With our turnkey management approach, you can take advantage of industry trends without worrying about digital asset selection, in-depth token research, volatility, arbitrage, and more. You simply need to review your monthly reports and invest regularly, adopting a long-term perspective (4 years and more).
We do not engage in daily algorithmic trading; we focus exclusively on long-term investments in projects we know and understand. Our monthly portfolio rebalancing is accompanied by an in-depth analysis of the assets, with a particular focus on their tokenomics.
Check out our website: https://www.mereau-finance.com/
For any questions, observations, or if you would like to learn more about our services, please feel free to contact us by email at tristan.g@crypto-assets-management.com or to schedule a brief phone call afterwards this link.
Discovery Pack
Investment of under €20,000
- No admission fee
- Management fees: 2 % / year
- Performance fee: 20 % excl. VAT on capital gains (High Water Mark method)
- Exit fee: 3 %
- Minimum subscription: €5,000
- Commitment period: None
Premium Pack
Investment of more than €20,000
- No admission fee
- Management fees: 2 % / year
- Performance fee: 20 % of the performance above the benchmark index*
- Exit fees: None
- Minimum subscription: €20,000
- Commitment period: None
We are saved with the AMF under the registration number for digital asset buy/sell activities against legal tender and digital asset exchange against other digital assets: E2023-084.
— Warning —
This is not investment advice, no one can predict the future.
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions.
We are not responsible for losses following a decision made on the basis of the informatwe go in this letter.
