The purpose of this letter on US Bitcoin ETFs is to inform you about the current state of the crypto-asset market as well as recent news in this field. This letter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.
News
https://cryptoast.fr/selon-sec-eth-ethereum-eth-spot-lances-mardi-prochain/. According to sources, the first spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs could hit the market as early as next Tuesday (July 23). What are the latest updates?
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«It's wonderful» – Donald Trump explains his enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies. US presidential candidate Donald Trump has stood out for his enthusiasm for cryptocurrencies in recent months. In a lengthy interview with Bloomberg, he explained why he feels it is important to support the sector in the face of China. What does he envision?
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Payment giant Stripe now offers the purchase of cryptocurrencies by bank card in Europe. Stripe, an internet payments company, will allow European users to buy Bitcoin, Ether, and SOL directly by credit card.
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«My opinion was wrong» – BlackRock CEO admits he was mistaken about Bitcoin (BTC). BlackRock has just released its Q2 results, which are better than expected. This gives Larry Fink the opportunity to look back at the role of Bitcoin (BTC) – the BlackRock CEO admitted his mistake from 5 years ago.
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France: Bitcoin is coming to retirement savings thanks to InterInvest. InterInvest, a group specializing in the management and distribution of investment solutions, has just introduced a major innovation to the French market by allowing its clients to invest in Bitcoin via their retirement savings plans (PER).
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United Arab Emirates, Singapore, Turkey… These territories where cryptocurrencies are in high demand. Cryptocurrency ownership rates are reaching record highs in certain territories such as the United Arab Emirates, Singapore, and Turkey. How can this digital gold rush be explained?
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France: The European Union points the finger at «excessive deficit». In the wake of a debt that has been exploding for 10 years, the Council of the European Union has warned France regarding its management of the public deficit. What is the current state of the situation?
Fundamental Analysis
Source : https://www.coingecko.com/fr
Letter No. 39: Programmed scarcity; US ETFs: a constant bullish force
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 64,539 $ (on 07/18/24).
The programmed scarcity of Bitcoin
Halvings are a key moment in the Bitcoin calendar, reflecting both the asset's programmed scarcity and the historical market performance following these events.
The chart below illustrates the indexed performance over the 365 days following the last four halvings. The 2016 (in blue) and 2020 (in green) cycles are particularly relevant as they represent a more mature and developed digital asset market.
The previous two cycles experienced a period of relative calm for several months after the halving, followed by remarkable maximum returns of +350 % and +650 %, respectively.
In 2024, the Bitcoin market seems to be following a similar trajectory after the fourth halving in April, with BTC prices having varied by only a few percentage points since that event.
Glassnode
The sale of Bitcoin by the German government
Focusing on the selling pressure exerted by the German government, we note that their balance of 48,800 BTC was liquidated in just a few weeks.
The majority of these sales took place over a very short period, from July 7 to 10, with more than 39,800 BTC leaving identified wallets. Interestingly, this wave of selling occurred after the market hit a floor of around 54,000 $, suggesting that the market had already absorbed the impact of this news.
A few days later, the price of BTC climbed back up to around 68,000 $, while The German government had sold its Bitcoins at an average price of around 58,800 $ per Bitcoin. In reality, the sale of the bitcoins was the result of a standard procedure applied to assets seized during criminal investigations. The decision to sell the bitcoins was not motivated by an investment strategy, but by a legal obligation to liquidate confiscated assets within a certain timeframe. It is a pity for the German government, which perhaps should have kept these BTC as part of an investment strategy.
Glassnode
US Bitcoin ETFs: A constant bullish force
After an extended period of volatile and range-bound trading, aggregate net flows for all US Bitcoin ETFs experienced a continuous phase of outflows. When prices dropped toward the 54,000 $ floor, they fell below the average cost basis for ETF holders, which is currently 58,200 $.
In response, US Bitcoin ETFs recorded their first significant wave of positive interest since early June, with over $1 billion in total inflows last week alone.
The purchasing power of US Bitcoin ETFs every time the price drops is considerable. The long-term impact of this institutional buying power over several years is likely underestimated. The purchasing power of dis US Bitcoin ETF over the past 7 last months have been of 2.5 billion euros per month. That's considerable!
Glassnode
Below is the result of the last 7 months of spot US Bitcoin ETF purchases. We can see that BlackRock's IBIT ETF is in the lead and has surpassed Grayscale's GBTC. Today, nearly 4.63 % of all Bitcoins are held in US ETFs!
SoSo Value
Here are the results for the first day of launch (07/23/24) of the 9 spot US Ethereum ETFs. As with the launch of the US Bitcoin ETF, there was a redistribution of capital from investors already committed to Grayscale's product. BlackRock's Ethereum ETF attracted the most inflows on this launch day.
Currently, The Ethereum ETF totals $10.24 billion, compared to $62 billion for the Bitcoin ETF. We can anticipate a net inbound flow of 5 to 10 billion dollars, not counting those from the Grayscale fund, over the next six months. The goal would be to reach about 4 % of Ethereum's total market capitalization within six months.
SoSo Value
Our service
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— Warning —
This is not investment advice, no one can predict the future.
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions.
We are not responsible for losses following a decision made on the basis of the informatwe go in this letter.
