{"id":2733,"date":"2022-07-18T20:41:06","date_gmt":"2022-07-18T18:41:06","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/letter\/lettre-n15-inflation-defi-point-bas-de-ce-cycle\/"},"modified":"2022-07-18T20:41:06","modified_gmt":"2022-07-18T18:41:06","slug":"letter-no-15-inflation-defiance-and-the-low-point-of-this-cycle","status":"publish","type":"letter","link":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/en\/letter\/lettre-n15-inflation-defi-point-bas-de-ce-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"Letter No. 15: Inflation \u2013 DeFi \u2013 Bottom of this Cycle?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hello everyone,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The purpose of this letter is to inform you about the current situation of the crypto-asset market, as well as recent news in this field. This letter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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News<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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How does Europe want to regulate cryptocurrencies?<\/a> I advise you to read this article to understand how the regulation of crypto-assets is progressing in Europe. These regulations will be decisive for the place Europeans will hold in the crypto industry. We must above all avoid making the same mistake as we did with the Internet in the 2000s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abEurope must not miss out on this revolution by proposing an overly strict regulatory framework that would push companies to leave the territory to develop elsewhere.\u00bb<\/em>, CEO of Ledger, Pascal Gauthier<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The MiCA (Markets in Crypto-Assets) law, which will enter into force in 2023-24, has been approved. The non-integration of DeFi and NFTs into this regulation remains a victory for the crypto ecosystem. It is indeed difficult to regulate decentralized entities and extremely different use cases. However, there will likely be a MiCA version 2 in the coming years that will seek to integrate these two points. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

However, certain points remain unsuitable: crypto-asset service providers will therefore communicate all information on transactions made through them to another exchange platform<\/strong>. They will also have to communicate the information on the transactions carried out to and from private wallets<\/strong> (non-custodial), like MetaMask or hardware wallets such as Ledger, as soon as the latter exceed \u20ac1,000. On the other hand, Transactions between private wallets will not be affected.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a scenario that raises questions about the middle ground between regulation aimed at protecting the cryptocurrency holder and their own sovereignty<\/strong>, or regarding the disclosure of strategic flows. This can indeed raise the issue of respect for privacy<\/strong> or even the difficulty in establishing such rules.<\/strong>
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethereum (ETH): according to a new schedule, The Merge is expected for September 19.<\/a> Good news for those eagerly awaiting The Merge. The long-awaited transition of the Ethereum (ETH) network from proof-of-work (PoW) to proof-of-stake (PoS) is expected on September 19. With this update and in the coming years, this blockchain should significantly increase its capacity to execute transactions, while also greatly reducing fees and its environmental impact.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


\u2013

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MakerDAO (MKR) is dedicating a 100 million DAI vault to a bank.<\/a> The decentralized finance (DeFi) platform MakerDao has taken out a loan from a bank. This brings legitimacy to the protocol in traditional finance. It is also a magnificent blend of the blockchain ecosystem and traditional finance.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Stablecoin: Aave (AAVE) submits the GHO idea to its governance<\/a>. The Aave teams presented a new stablecoin project called GHO to their governance. With its overcollateralization mechanism, it would then integrate into the functioning of the protocol, which has already demonstrated its resilience in the past.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013
<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Terrible inflation in Argentina: The population is seeking refuge in stablecoins.<\/a> The\u2019inflation<\/strong> y recorded a 60 increase in Q3<\/strong> in May of this year compared to the rate in the same month in 2021. The country's central bank reserves are depleting. The consequences are being felt in imports. Argentines have therefore rushed to platforms to buy 2 to 3 times<\/strong> plus <\/strong>of stablecoins during this weekend, compared to the buying volume observed at the end of the week \u00abnormal\u00bb<\/strong>. The crypto-asset and stablecoin industry can help citizens protect themselves against the inflation of their currencies caused by their institutions.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The judiciary in the United Kingdom authorizes the use of NFTs for official documents.<\/a> Use cases of cryptocurrencies and their technologies multiply<\/strong> at full speed. The non-fungible tokens<\/strong> (NFTs) are of course part of this. They have already found use cases in art, sports and collections<\/strong>. Much less expected: NFTs and blockchain immutability are now useful for official documents<\/strong> in the United Kingdom, including... the NFT complaints!<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Fundamental Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Here is the price of Bitcoin over the last two years in dollars.
Source : https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/fr<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n


At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 21,200 $ (on 07\/17\/22).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are at the same price levels as in the previous letter. We hit the low point on June 18 at 17,622$. Since then, the price is potentially forming a trend reversal pattern and we still need to wait before having validation. We will know that we have changed trends only upon a strong rebound above 22.5 k $ and then 32k $.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, all long-term fundamental analysis charts suggest that we are in an exceptionally low zone. We can never rely on a single chart, but when many time-tested long-term analyses point to the same thing, we can be more confident: We are probably very close to the bottom of this cycle. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here are 11 long-term indicators that point to a bottom for this cycle. I cannot detail how all of them work here, nor include all the charts for space reasons, but feel free to do your own research if you are interested. Sometimes, pictures speak louder than words:<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The MVRV Z-Score<\/strong><\/em>. It signals market tops as well as market bottoms. Every time it is in the red zone, it means we are close to a market top, and the green zone means we are close to a bottom.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The MVRV Z-Score<\/strong><\/em>. Source: lookintobitcoin.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Pi Cycle Bottom <\/strong><\/em>just announced a low on 07\/13\/22. It turns out that Bitcoin's Pi Cycle Bottom indicator successfully served to estimate the absolute bottom zone of the two previous bear markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The 200 Weekly moving average<\/em><\/strong>. Shown here in blue, it is simply a weekly moving average that is closely watched by many investors. It also signaled the lows of 2015\/2018 and the 2020 COVID-19 low. Currently, we are right on it around the 22K $ mark.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
200-period weekly moving average.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The Hash Ribbons.<\/em><\/strong> This is an indicator related to mining difficulty. It does not necessarily indicate bear market bottoms, but rather the moments before an upside move. It has already given 13 signals since 2011, and a signal was given a few weeks ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Bitcoin Price Models compiled with the CVDD<\/em><\/strong>. This moving average tested this model at every market low, such as in 2012\/2015\/2018. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Bitcoin Price Models \u2013 Source : charts.woobull.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n


The Bitcoin Entity-Adjusted Dormancy Flow. <\/strong><\/em>This indicator gave us the lows of 2012\/2015\/2018 and 2020 for Covid-19, by reaching the green zone. Currently, the indicator has dropped below this green zone.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss)<\/em><\/strong>. Here we have the representation of market fear and euphoria. Somewhat similar to the Crypto Fear & Greed, but in a graphical representation. The red zone is the capitulation phase, which often represents the bottoms in a bear market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit\/Loss) \u2013 Source: Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

The Bitcoin Rainbow Price Chart<\/em><\/strong>. It shows us Bitcoin's long-term logarithmic curve. As we can see, each market low touches the blue zone of this curve.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The Bitcoin Reserve Risk<\/em><\/strong>. It measures the risk\/reward ratio. The relationship between what can be lost and what can be gained. If the ratio is high in the red, you must avoid entering. If the ratio is low in the green, then it is worth buying.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Bitcoin Reserve Risk \u2013 Source : Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The monthly RSI<\/em><\/strong>. It shows us the overbought phases above 90 and the oversold phases below 45. The month of May 2022 closed at 41.6 compared to 44.6 in 2015 and 43.8 in 2018!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The 2-Year MA Multiplier<\/em><\/strong>. These are 2 moving averages that announce the moments of highs and lows, but with fairly wide zones. The green moving average gives a low point several months after the price has dropped below it. We passed it 2 months ago.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The 2-Year MA Multiplier<\/em><\/strong> \u2013 Source: lookintobitcoin.com<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n


\u2013
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I would also like to use this letter to highlight a sub-category of the crypto industry, which is DeFi (decentralized finance) and which has succeeded in its endeavor.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Over the past few months, the strength of the bear market has troubled and bankrupted many CeFi (centralized finance) companies and platforms. These pooled their customers' money by offering unsustainable returns while taking on high risks and leverage (such as Celsius, BlockFi, and Voyager Digital). I would like to point out that, conversely, the decentralized finance (DeFi) industry performed very well during liquidation periods, and these platforms did not go bankrupt because they are entirely transparent. Their risk-taking is low and responsible, and they cannot hide their losses, restructure them, or suspend withdrawals the way centralized platforms do.
This episode has proven to us that DeFi is functional and solves many problems, unlike CeFi, which has never managed to solve them for decades. For example, the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers<\/a> : On Monday, September 15, 2008, at 1:45 AM, Lehman Brothers<\/strong> filed for bankruptcy, taking the world by surprise. The bank leaves behind a 691 billion dollar debt and 25,000 employees out of a job.<\/em>
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I would also like to point out in this letter, because the mainstream media provides little to no information on the subject, that the euro recently reached parity with the dollar, meaning it has lost more than 20 % of its purchasing power over the past year and a half. Contrary to popular belief, the euro is not stable at all... If you had 100,000 \u20ac in May 2021, it is now worth only 80,000 \u20ac in terms of purchasing power. The charts speak for themselves; here is the exchange rate of the euro against the dollar over the last 5 years. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
EUR\/USD \u2013 these last 5 years \u2013 Tradingview.com<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n


This inflation is not due to the war in Ukraine or Covid-19<\/span><\/span>,<\/strong> but rather to money printing over the last 15 years and more particularly over the last 2 years<\/span><\/span><\/strong>. Here is a chart of the European Central Bank's money printing. It's as simple as that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
ECB Balance Sheet \u2013 Money Printing \u2013 Source: Bloomberg<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n


I would like to point out that despite Bitcoin's volatility, you are protected against long-term inflation in this asset, because the number of tokens is limited to 21 million. Even if the price sometimes drops much more than inflation, it always ends up returning to fundamentals in the long run. The latter does not lose value through inflation because none is printed (unlike the euro).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Despite the drop in price, Bitcoin continues to be adopted! The network has reached the historic milestone of 1 billion addresses used since its creation, according to Glassnode<\/a>. Please note, not to be confused, a person can create multiple addresses; we estimate the number of crypto-asset users at 300 million people today.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Never in Bitcoin's history have BTC holders whose balance oscillates between 0 and 1 BTC bought the bottom so aggressively, according to data from\u00a0Glassnode<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

If you have any questions, comments, or would like to know more about our service, please feel free to contact us: crypto.assets.manage@gmail.com<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n


\u2014 Warning \u2014<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not investment advice, no one can predict the future.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are not responsible for any losses resulting from a decision made based on the information in this letter.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n


<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>","protected":false},"template":"","categories":[1],"class_list":["post-2733","letter","type-letter","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lettres"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"\nLettre N\u00b015 : Inflation - DeFi - Point Bas de ce cycle ? - M\u00e9reau Finance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lettre N\u00b015 : Inflation - DeFi - Point Bas de ce cycle ? - M\u00e9reau Finance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bonjour \u00e0 tous, L\u2019objectif de cette lettre est de vous informer sur la situation actuelle du march\u00e9 des crypto-actifs, mais aussi des actualit\u00e9s r\u00e9centes dans ce domaine. Cette lettre n\u2019est pas un conseil en investissement, mais seulement un partage de mon point de vue personnel. 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