{"id":2732,"date":"2022-08-18T18:44:47","date_gmt":"2022-08-18T16:44:47","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/letter\/lettre-n16-mise-a-jour-dethereum-le-geant-blackrock-prudence-a-la-rentree-de-septembre\/"},"modified":"2022-08-18T18:44:47","modified_gmt":"2022-08-18T16:44:47","slug":"letter-n16-ethereum-update-the-giant-blackrock-caution-for-the-september-return","status":"publish","type":"letter","link":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/en\/letter\/lettre-n16-mise-a-jour-dethereum-le-geant-blackrock-prudence-a-la-rentree-de-septembre\/","title":{"rendered":"Letter No. 16: Ethereum upgrade, the giant BlackRock, caution for the back-to-school season in September?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hello everyone,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The purpose of this letter is to inform you about the current situation of the crypto-asset market, as well as recent news in this field. This letter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

News<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n


Ethereum (ETH): The Merge is now scheduled for around September 15.<\/a> The date long-awaited by the crypto ecosystem is fast approaching; after successfully completing The Merge on Goerli, Ethereum's third and final testnet, its arrival on the mainnet is anticipated for mid-September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vitalik Buterin<\/strong>, the co-founder of Ethereum, stated on this matter that once the update is complete, the blockchain would only be \u00abcompleted\u00bb at 55 %<\/strong>. Many steps are still planned for the ecosystem's second-largest network. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Two mistakes not to make regarding The Merge in September: this update will bring the blockchain's consensus change from PoW to PoS and thus change its ecological footprint, but there will not be a drastic reduction in fees or an increase in network scalability. These last two points will arrive with subsequent implementations in the coming months and years. Nor will there be an unlocking of ETH staked on the new chain; an unlocking will be organized later.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next update, after The Merge, concerns the sharding<\/strong>, the planned scalability solution for accelerate transaction speed and reduce fees<\/strong>. According to Vitalik, the Ethereum network, which currently processes 15 to 20 transactions per second, could then process up to 100,000<\/strong>.

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Bitcoin (BTC): Machankura makes it possible to receive satoshis without an internet connection.<\/a> Thanks to the services developed by Machankura<\/strong>, residents of certain African countries can receive Bitcoin (BTC) without an internet connection<\/strong>. This is an important advancement because it addresses a fundamental need in regions of the world where Bitcoin has a concrete use case. Cryptocurrencies have enabled fast money transfers, with negligible fees and all over the world<\/strong>. For Bitcoin, this is even more illustrated in the Lightning Network<\/a>. However, this condition was only valid for people having an internet connection<\/strong>, at least until now.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


\u2013

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The giant BlackRock is launching a private trust to offer Bitcoin (BTC) on the spot market<\/a>. The world's largest asset manager, BlackRock<\/strong>, which manages over $10 Trillion for its clients, or 10 times the size of the entire crypto-asset ecosystem, is embracing Bitcoin (BTC). This announcement comes just a week after the American multinational announced its partnership with Coinbase<\/a>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The decision is a response to the request<\/strong> clients<\/strong> according to the press release, from the manager:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abDespite the sharp decline in the digital asset market, some institutional clients continue to take a close interest in how to access these assets efficiently and cost-effectively through our technology and products.\u00bb<\/em><\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

BlackRock, like a rising name of Wall Street giants<\/strong> and more broadly of the financial sector, emphasizes once again his growing interest in this type of market<\/strong>. In April, already, she was announcing a strategic partnership with Circle<\/a> in order to study new use cases for USDC in capital markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A new Visa card on the Lightning Network thanks to Strike. Lightning-fast BTC payments. Nowadays, the bank card<\/strong> has become the most commonly used means of payment, due to its speed<\/strong> and its facility<\/strong>. While crypto-backed cards have existed for a few years, this time it is on the Lightning Network<\/strong> from (LN) Bitcoin<\/strong> (BTC) that\u2019Strike application<\/strong> Bring a payment card in CB format.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

The network Lightning<\/strong> is the solution of second layer<\/strong> (layer 2)<\/em> of Bitcoin. It makes it possible to relieve the main network of daily micro-transactions, while bringing instant transactions<\/strong> and virtually cost-free<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Many companies you know very well are already heavily invested in crypto<\/a>, which proves that adoption continues to advance strongly.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here is the data collected from the top 100 global banks that led to this conclusion. The report thus identified, from September 2021 to mid-June 2022, those that invested the most. On the honor roll, we find:
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
The top 100 public companies that have invested the most in blockchain-related companies<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

Fundamental Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n


<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Here is the Bitcoin price over the last five years in dollars.
Source : https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/fr<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n


At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 23,800 $ (on 07\/16\/22)<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We have seen a strong upward movement over recent weeks; risky markets have caught their breath and regained some color after a long bear market. During the summer period, many players close their positions, which reduces volumes. It is partly for this reason that risky assets have bounced back, but we cannot conclude from this an end to the bear market for all risky assets. Indeed, the global economy is very weak. Despite the fact that inflation in the United States is slowing down and coming back down after peaking at 9.1 %, most regions in the world are affected by high inflation. Incidentally, very recently, inflation in France (6.1%) became higher than inflation in Brazil (6.02%).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think that from a macro perspective, we have not finished the bear market that started at the end of 2021; energy prices have risen sharply, particularly in Europe, because of sanctions against Russia, the fact that we have not invested in new large-scale energy production, high global inflation, stocks that are still overvalued, and a reduction in liquidity injections by central banks followed by interest rate hikes. All of this encourages us to remain cautious as we head into September.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the crypto-asset ecosystem, I believe that at the end of this entire period of turmoil, it will be the best-performing asset class, largely due to its very rapid adoption and development. Furthermore, the crypto market has already corrected its excess very sharply. Currently, fundamentals are supporting prices. If a sharp decline occurs in the equity markets, it is likely that the crypto market will be dragged down with it. However, it will bounce back immediately, and much more quickly, as we saw during the Covid-19 crash in March 2020.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The Ethereum update is attracting a lot of attention from short-term speculators, particularly in the derivatives markets. This has already driven up the price of Ether significantly. We are going to lighten our Ether positions before September, as Ether has already significantly outperformed recently. Of course, once the media hype surrounding the update is over, we will gradually reinvest at a lower price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BlackRock is launching a private trust to offer spot Bitcoin: there will likely be a demand shock because there is a strong willingness among professional investors to invest in this market. Many will feel more confident being supported by the world's largest asset manager. This is very good news for Bitcoin, as it will create demand on the spot market, which will directly influence the price. However, it will take time for the effect to be visible on the price.
<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Regarding the study of the Bitcoin cycle, we can understand that the major distribution and capitulation phase that comes at the end of a bull market and then a bear market is over. What remains to be seen is when the major consolidation range phase will begin. We can see this in the chart below. The orange curve indicates the percentage of the total supply of Bitcoins that have been held for more than a year. This shows the conviction of the buyers from May to July 2021. On this orange curve, we can see the two distribution semi-circles between July 2017 and August 2018, and then between January 2021 and February 2022, which correspond to a bull then bear market cycle (black curve).<\/p>\n\n\n\n


<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Percentage of the total amount of bitcoins held for more than a year.
Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The difference with this bear market ending compared to the previous cycle's is the more degraded macro environment. We must remain cautious, because the macro will drive crypto in the short term in the event of a general drop in risky asset prices. In the long term, they will outperform other assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

If you have any questions, comments, or would like to know more about our service, please feel free to contact us: crypto.assets.manage@gmail.com<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\n\n\n\n

<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2014 Warning \u2014<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not investment advice, no one can predict the future.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are not responsible for any losses resulting from a decision made based on the information in this letter.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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