{"id":2723,"date":"2023-05-22T17:49:05","date_gmt":"2023-05-22T15:49:05","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/letter\/lettre-n25-intensification-du-staking-dethereum-les-cycles-du-bitcoin-limpression-monetaire\/"},"modified":"2023-05-22T17:49:05","modified_gmt":"2023-05-22T15:49:05","slug":"letter-no-25-intensification-of-ethereum-staking-bitcoin-cycles-money-printing","status":"publish","type":"letter","link":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/en\/letter\/lettre-n25-intensification-du-staking-dethereum-les-cycles-du-bitcoin-limpression-monetaire\/","title":{"rendered":"Letter No. 25: Intensification of Ethereum staking, Bitcoin cycles, money printing."},"content":{"rendered":"<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-b1a763e9-c872-4f34-8017-45b071739364\">Hello everyone,<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-435e2765-b444-4025-8616-b74184009894\">The purpose of this letter is to inform you about the current situation of the crypto-asset market as well as recent news in this field. This letter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" id=\"block-ef97e15a-9734-4403-9577-9f40b9ba2c00\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\" id=\"block-db79ae53-ba10-4db4-a85c-e363f778189e\">News<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" id=\"block-a75db183-ffb3-4642-ba2b-fb1d732220ff\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoast.fr\/crise-bancaire-moitie-banques-americaines-potentiellement-insolvables\/\" class=\"ek-link\">Banking crisis: half of US banks are potentially insolvent<\/a>. The banking crisis continues in the United States, with half of American banks having depleted their capital reserves, according to a report by The Telegraph. Consequently, thousands of banks are potentially insolvent, including one global systemically important bank. Have we reached the point of no return?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoast.fr\/1-million-adresses-detiennent-plus-1-bitcoin-btc\/\" class=\"ek-link\">1 million addresses now hold more than 1 Bitcoin (BTC)<\/a>. Bitcoin (BTC) continues to convince investors, who are giving it an increasingly large place in their portfolios. In this month of May 2023, a new record has been broken: one million addresses now hold more than 1 full BTC. Let's look at together what this means.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoast.fr\/tribune-web3-ne-penalisons-pas-nos-entreprises-ainsi-attractivite\/\" class=\"ek-link\">OP-ED \u2013 Web3: let us penalize neither the growth of our companies nor France's attractiveness<\/a>. While France and Paris are rising to the top of the rankings of the most sought-after locations for the Web3 ecosystem around the globe, the bill passed by the National Assembly at the end of March could penalize our ambitions in this sector full of opportunities. What is at stake for the industry when 10% of French people hold digital assets in their investment portfolios?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoast.fr\/clients-paypal-investi-943-millions-dollars-cryptomonnaies\/\" class=\"ek-link\">PayPal customers invested $943 million in cryptocurrencies<\/a>. According to a document filed with the SEC, we learn that PayPal holds nearly one billion dollars invested in cryptocurrencies by its customers. How is the payment giant evolving regarding this aspect of its business?<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoast.fr\/geant-paiement-stripe-etend-offre-fiat-crypto-conquerir-web3\/\" class=\"ek-link\">Payment giant Stripe expands its fiat-to-crypto offering to conquer Web3<\/a>. Stripe, the US payment solutions giant, has launched its fiat-to-crypto on-ramp solution to enable Web3 companies to provide an easy option for their customers to buy cryptocurrencies. This solution aims to accelerate the adoption of Web3 and has already been adopted by companies such as the social network Lens, the DeFi protocol 1inch, and the Brave browser.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoast.fr\/tether-geant-chateau-cartes-dernier-rapport-divise\/\" class=\"ek-link\">Tether, a \u00abgiant house of cards\u00bb? Its latest report divides opinion<\/a>. Tether, the issuer of USDT, has released its first-quarter report for 2023, revealing a record excess reserve of $2.44 billion. The company also shared the breakdown of its reserves in cash, short-term deposits, Bitcoin (BTC), and gold. Tether maintains its dominant position in the stablecoin market, with a market capitalization of $82.87 billion, but some remain doubtful about its transparency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\">\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\"><a href=\"https:\/\/cryptoast.fr\/blockchain-bnp-paribas-goldman-sachs-microsoft-participent-lancement-reseau-canton\/\" class=\"ek-link\">Blockchain: BNP Paribas, Goldman Sachs and Microsoft participate in the launch of the Canton network<\/a>. Lately, several major tech and financial groups participated in the launch of the Canton blockchain. Designed to make financial systems interoperable with one another, this network demonstrates the interest of institutional players at a time when few of them anticipate a bull market recovery for cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" id=\"block-d9724a86-3dc9-46d1-83f5-9c278a188efe\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\" id=\"block-eb0d4554-a150-464b-90e9-7bfb0a0714a0\">Fundamental Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\" id=\"block-ea2a33e1-9508-49ca-9f35-d2faeaa778c1\"\/>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized caption-align-center\"><img fetchpriority=\"high\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/image.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-822\" width=\"836\" height=\"480\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">The price of Bitcoin over the last five years in euros and on a logarithmic scale.<br>Source :&nbsp;<a href=\"https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/fr\" class=\"ek-link\">https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/fr<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 26,780$ (05\/17\/23).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\" class=\"ek-underline\">The rush for Ethereum staking continues: <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">The latest Ethereum update that enabled the double upgrade, named \u00abShapella and Shanghai,\u00bb was successfully completed in April. In our last letter, we presented the increase in the number of Ethers deposited in staking. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">To recall what staking is: it is the act of depositing tokens (Ethers for the Ethereum blockchain) as collateral in order to secure the blockchain (Ethereum) and receive in return a fraction of the fees generated by the network (fees that are paid by Ethereum network users). This applies only to blockchains that have a consensus mechanism based on Proof of Stake.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">The amount of Ether staked since the end of 2020 has been growing, but since the update in mid-April 2023, this figure has increased very sharply. This is a real success for the network. This success could lead, in the medium to long term, to a staked Ether volume of between 50 and 70 %, as we can see on other PoS networks.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">Below is the clear increase in staked Ethers, especially since the mid-April 2023 update.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:20px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large caption-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/image-7-1024x580.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-829\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Total value of staked Ether on Ethereum<br>Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:32px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">Ethereum's tokenomics changed in 2022\/23. We do not believe that market participants have truly integrated this modification. We are very bullish on the Ether token for the years to come.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\" class=\"ek-underline\">The Bitcoin adoption cycles: <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">During our research, we analyzed the frequency of Bitcoin cycles. We isolated only 3 points per cycle: the Halving day, the cycle low, and the cycle high. As we can see in the chart below, there is a regularity in the frequency of each of these points that is almost perfect. Regarding the Halving dates, this is normal, but what is interesting is that the cycle lows and highs have perfectly adapted to the Halving frequency.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>The blue dots are the dates of the halvings, set at an average frequency of 4 years by the Bitcoin protocol.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The orange dots are the dates of the market high points for each of the cycles.<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>The gray dots are the dates of the market lows for each of the cycles.<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:30px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-large caption-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/image-5-1024x292.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-827\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Temporal analysis of Bitcoin cycle peaks and troughs as well as halvings <br>Internal<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:33px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">There is one common point to note, many know it but it is important to repeat it: each of the orange points, and therefore the market highs, are higher cycle after cycle:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>December 2013: $1,237<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>December 2017: $20,089<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>May 2021: $68 789<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Same for the blue points, so the market lows, they are higher cycle after cycle:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>December 2014: $171<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>December 2018: $3 191<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>November 2022: $15,599<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">We can see these same cycles more visually in the graph below. Only the highs and lows of the cycles are represented in this graph by the horizontal line with a value of 1 (highs) on the y-axis and by the horizontal line with a value of 0 (lows).  <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:37px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image aligncenter size-full is-resized caption-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/image-2.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-824\" width=\"819\" height=\"269\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Sigmoid based on Bitcoin cycles according to the Halving<br>Internal<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:38px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">It is ultimately quite easy to predict the period during which the lows and highs of future cycles will occur. Obviously, it is more difficult to exit or enter a position at those times because the psychology of our human brains disrupts our decision-making. It is for this reason that we try to automate our decision-making based on non-psychological and\/or non-sentimental elements.   <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><br><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\" class=\"ek-underline\"><strong><strong>Balance sheet of the United States Central Bank and the Eurozone Central Bank<\/strong><\/strong> : <\/span><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">We can see in the graph below the increase in the balance sheet of the United States central bank since 2004. It is quite simple to understand why the value of the dollar has depreciated sharply over these last two decades. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full caption-align-center\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/image-8.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-830\"\/><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Balance sheet of the United States central bank 2004 \u2013 2023<br>Source : <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/united-states\/central-bank-balance-sheet\" class=\"ek-link\">tradingeconomics <\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">It is the same observation for the balance sheet of the euro area central bank: <\/p>\n\n\n\n<figure class=\"wp-block-image size-full caption-align-center\"><a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/euro-area\/central-bank-balance-sheet\"><img decoding=\"async\" src=\"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/wp-content\/uploads\/2023\/05\/image-9.png\" alt=\"\" class=\"wp-image-831\"\/><\/a><figcaption class=\"wp-element-caption\">Balance sheet of the euro area central bank 2000 \u2013 2023<br>Source : <a href=\"https:\/\/tradingeconomics.com\/euro-area\/central-bank-balance-sheet\" class=\"ek-link\">tradingeconomics <\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n<div style=\"height:37px\" aria-hidden=\"true\" class=\"wp-block-spacer\"><\/div>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">Readers might tell us that inflation is only very recent, that we haven't had any for a very long time even though our central banks have been \u00abprinting\u00bb for a long time, why? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">Yes indeed, but the answer is <strong><span style=\"text-decoration: underline;\" class=\"ek-underline\">that the way we measure inflation is simply wrong.<\/span><\/strong> We measure inflation only according to very selective criteria that in no way represent reality.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">We calculate the inflation rate in our economies in the same way as this metaphor:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\"><em>\u00abIt is a bit like trying to measure the amount of water falling into our garden when it rains with a bucket of water, and then multiplying the surface area of the bucket until we reach the total surface area of the garden. The calculation works mathematically and it seems logical, <strong>but this does not work if you stand under your porch roof<\/strong> with your bucket to try to catch the rainwater.\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">Indeed, inflation, as calculated by INSEE for example, has not been very high over the past two decades. On the other hand, all assets that are \u00abnot printable at will\u00bb have seen their prices increase:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">Gold, real estate, stocks, commodities, etc., have risen sharply. It is in these assets that all the money printing, and therefore inflation, has been stored for years. This causes huge wealth gaps between the richest who own assets that inflate and the poorest who remain stuck in a state of poverty. Inflation is unfair. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<h3 class=\"wp-block-heading has-text-align-center\"><strong>Our service<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">We offer a portfolio management service under mandate specializing in digital assets. We provide comprehensive, personalized support in this space by tailoring your portfolio allocation to your risk profile and situation. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">Our turnkey management allows you to take advantage of this sector's growth without worrying about choosing the digital assets to put in your portfolio, conducting in-depth token research, dealing with volatility, or handling rebalancing, etc. All you have to do is read your monthly reports and invest regularly with a long-term horizon (4 years and more). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-justify wp-block-paragraph\">We do not engage in algorithmic trading or day trading; we invest for the long term in projects that we know and understand. We make monthly rebalancing adjustments in the portfolios and conduct in-depth research on the assets (especially their tokenomics) that we include in our portfolios. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\">Check out our website:<a href=\"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/en\/\" class=\"ek-link\"> https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\"><em><strong>If you have any questions, comments, or would like to know more about our service, please feel free to contact us at this email address: <a href=\"mailto:tristan.g@crypto-assets-management.com\" class=\"ek-link\">tristan.g@crypto-assets-management.com<\/a><\/strong><\/em> <strong><em>or to schedule a phone appointment with us via <a href=\"https:\/\/calendly.com\/goutte-tristan\/premier-contact-telephonique?month=2023-03\" class=\"ek-link\">this link.<\/a><\/em><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<hr class=\"wp-block-separator has-alpha-channel-opacity\"\/>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"wp-block-paragraph\"><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-73f8e566-d47e-40db-b760-18d519c62fb6\"><em>\u2014 Warning \u2014<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-e806579f-e754-4e82-9d68-ac8cf086793b\"><em>This is not investment advice, no one can predict the future.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-f3c1f037-5e40-4096-acd5-9ff59b07ab3c\"><em>You are solely responsible for your investment decisions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p class=\"has-text-align-center wp-block-paragraph\" id=\"block-64e04481-72d8-48c7-bdb6-7ddf90d881e3\"><em>We are not responsible for losses following a decision made on the basis of the information<\/em> in this letter.<\/p>","protected":false},"template":"","categories":[1],"class_list":["post-2723","letter","type-letter","status-publish","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-lettres"],"acf":[],"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO plugin v28.4 - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>Lettre N\u00b025 : Intensification du staking d&#039;Ethereum, les cycles du Bitcoin, l&#039;impression mon\u00e9taire. - M\u00e9reau Finance<\/title>\n<meta name=\"robots\" content=\"noindex, follow, max-snippet:-1, max-image-preview:large, max-video-preview:-1\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:locale\" content=\"en_US\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:type\" content=\"article\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:title\" content=\"Lettre N\u00b025 : Intensification du staking d&#039;Ethereum, les cycles du Bitcoin, l&#039;impression mon\u00e9taire. - M\u00e9reau Finance\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:description\" content=\"Bonjour \u00e0 tous, L\u2019objectif de cette lettre est de vous informer sur la situation actuelle du march\u00e9 des crypto-actifs mais aussi des actualit\u00e9s r\u00e9centes dans ce domaine. Cette lettre n\u2019est pas un conseil en investissement, mais seulement un partage de mon point de vue personnel. Actualit\u00e9s Crise bancaire : la moiti\u00e9 des banques am\u00e9ricaines seraient [&hellip;]\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:url\" content=\"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/en\/letter\/letter-no-25-intensification-of-ethereum-staking-bitcoin-cycles-money-printing\/\" \/>\n<meta property=\"og:site_name\" content=\"M\u00e9reau Finance\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:card\" content=\"summary_large_image\" \/>\n<meta name=\"twitter:label1\" content=\"Est. reading time\" \/>\n\t<meta name=\"twitter:data1\" content=\"9 minutes\" \/>\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\" class=\"yoast-schema-graph\">{\"@context\":\"https:\\\/\\\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.mereau-finance.com\\\/letter\\\/lettre-n25-intensification-du-staking-dethereum-les-cycles-du-bitcoin-limpression-monetaire\\\/\",\"url\":\"https:\\\/\\\/www.mereau-finance.com\\\/letter\\\/lettre-n25-intensification-du-staking-dethereum-les-cycles-du-bitcoin-limpression-monetaire\\\/\",\"name\":\"Lettre N\u00b025 : Intensification du staking d'Ethereum, les cycles du Bitcoin, l'impression mon\u00e9taire. - 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Cette lettre n\u2019est pas un conseil en investissement, mais seulement un partage de mon point de vue personnel. 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