{"id":2714,"date":"2024-02-16T14:22:14","date_gmt":"2024-02-16T13:22:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/letter\/lettre-n34-les-hodler-en-profits-etf-ethereum-bouleversement-des-paiements-internationaux\/"},"modified":"2026-09-10T15:31:50","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T13:31:50","slug":"letter-no-34-ethereum-hodlers-in-profit-ethereum-etf-upheaval-in-international-payments","status":"publish","type":"letter","link":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/en\/letter\/lettre-n34-les-hodler-en-profits-etf-ethereum-bouleversement-des-paiements-internationaux\/","title":{"rendered":"Letter No. 34: Hodlers in profit; Ethereum ETF?; Upheaval in international payments?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hello everyone,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The purpose of this letter is to inform you about the current situation of the crypto-asset market as well as recent news in this field. This letter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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News<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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Bitcoin now exceeds 1 trillion dollars in market capitalization<\/a>. Bitcoin has crossed a symbolic threshold: its market capitalization now exceeds $1 trillion. This places it as the 10th most capitalized asset in the world. <\/span><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

25 % of Ethers are now staked on the Ethereum blockchain<\/a> \u2013 A figure that continues to rise. The Ethereum blockchain has reached a significant milestone, with 25% of Ethers in circulation\u2014equivalent to 30 million ETH\u2014now staked. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MicroStrategy now holds $9.5 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) <\/a>. As the price of Bitcoin confirms its upward trend by surpassing 50,000 dollars, MicroStrategy's unrealized profit on its BTC continues to grow. This profit now amounts to 3.5 billion dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spot Bitcoin ETFs: they now hold 3.5 % of the circulating BTC<\/a>. More than $32 billion worth of BTC is currently held in spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States, representing 3.48 % of the total BTC supply. Despite a decline in outflows from Grayscale\u2019s GBTC, other ETFs continue to gain popularity, with increasingly substantial positive net inflows. Meanwhile, BlackRock and Fidelity continue to stand out from their competitors.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dencun: the official date for the Ethereum (ETH) update is now known<\/a>. Now that Dencun has been successfully deployed on Ethereum's (ETH) various testnets, the mainnet upgrade is the next major step. While it is expected on March 13, it will activate, among other things, the famous Proto-Danksharding and its data blobs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethereum: Franklin Templeton files for a spot ETH ETF<\/a>. After seeing its spot Bitcoin ETF approved by the SEC last month, the asset manager has this time filed its application for ETH. This fund is also expected to generate additional revenue through staking on Ethereum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fundamental Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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Bitcoin's price over the last six years in euros and on a logarithmic scale.
Source : https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/fr<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 52,663 $ (on 01\/15\/24).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Long-term holders, soon all in profit.<\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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We can see that the total volume of long-term holders at a loss is drastically reducing (in red). This suggests that we will soon enter a phase where long-term holders will be sellers, likely in the second half of 2024 and early 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When we witness the appearance of these small troughs (below in blue), and when we are at the peak of the trough, it means that the price of Bitcoin is considered overvalued by long-term holders. This cohort of long-term investors is generally not often wrong.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Supply of long-term Bitcoin holders in profit\/loss
Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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The power of institutional capital: <\/u><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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Spot bitcoin ETFs are a huge success with institutions; in 30 years, BlackRock and Fidelity have the best launches compared to 5533 other ETFs<\/a>. At the time of writing these lines,\u00a0These investment vehicles have $36.77 billion in assets under management<\/strong>. And it totals 3.62 % of Bitcoin's total capitalization.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is a major sign of adoption and regulation that has taken place in recent weeks. Obviously, risks are emerging at the same time, notably that of the \u00abcentralization\u00bb of Bitcoins within institutions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

As I wrote in my recent letters, institutional capital is flowing into Bitcoin ETFs. Americans will even end up having exposure to Bitcoin, through their retirement fund, without even knowing it.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin ETFs are absorbing ten times more BTC than miners can produce! The Bitcoins produced each day are around 900 \/ day, and the Bitcoins absorbed by Bitcoin ETFs are around 9,000 \/ day. The difference is impressive, and Bitcoins are going to become increasingly scarce with this buying pressure.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Spot ETF \u2013 Net assets, far right column
Source : https:\/\/sosovalue.xyz\/<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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When will a spot Ethereum ETF be launched?<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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Now that Bitcoin spot ETFs have been approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the cryptocurrency ecosystem is now awaiting those for ETH. Below are the dates of the applications submitted by asset managers. It is best to consider only the final deadline. I do not think the SEC will approve a spot ETF before the final deadline on May 23, 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Spot ETH demand table
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, SEC.gov<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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There is growing strength and influence from banks and asset managers asking to manage the digital assets of interested clients and investors. Which is normal. Investors want exposure to this new asset class, so institutions are adapting, and those that are resistant will lose market share.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

US banks, left out of their key role in Bitcoin ETFs, are pushing the SEC to change its guidelines regarding the custody of digital assets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

A coalition of commercial banks sent a letter to the SEC asking it to exclude crypto-asset ETFs. They want a piece of the market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Ua disruption of the international payment system? <\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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Currently, 20 % of global oil is traded using currencies other than the US dollar. This represents a significant shift from the beginning of the century. This transformation of the global financial landscape raises important questions, challenging the dollar's \u00abimperial privilege\u00bb primarily due to the extraterritoriality of US law on dollar transactions.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I think that the share of oil purchases and sales denominated in dollars will continue to decline, with major consequences for the global economy. We might therefore wonder what will happen to the dollar reserves accumulated by importing countries to pay their energy bills, estimated at 7.4 trillion dollars.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Various options are available to these countries holding these dollar reserves:<\/p>\n\n\n\n