{"id":2713,"date":"2024-03-19T15:30:34","date_gmt":"2024-03-19T14:30:34","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/letter\/lettre-n35-le-compte-a-rebours-du-transfert-de-richesse-est-amorce-422-des-bitcoins-desormais-dans-les-etf-bitcoin\/"},"modified":"2026-09-10T15:31:50","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T13:31:50","slug":"letter-no-35-the-countdown-to-the-wealth-transfer-has-begun-4-22-of-bitcoins-are-now-in-bitcoin-etfs","status":"publish","type":"letter","link":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/en\/letter\/lettre-n35-le-compte-a-rebours-du-transfert-de-richesse-est-amorce-422-des-bitcoins-desormais-dans-les-etf-bitcoin\/","title":{"rendered":"Letter No. 35: The countdown to the wealth transfer has begun! 4.22 % of bitcoins are now in Bitcoin ETFs."},"content":{"rendered":"

Hello everyone,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The purpose of this letter is to inform you about the current situation of the crypto-asset market as well as recent news in this field. This letter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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News<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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Ethereum Layer 2 transaction fees have dropped drastically since Dencun.<\/a> Make Ethereum lighter and reduce usage costs. This was the goal of the highly anticipated Dencun upgrade, which took place on March 13, 2024. The effects are already being felt: fees for second-layer solutions, or layer 2, have plummeted. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abGold is going to be eaten by Bitcoin (BTC),\u00bb according to MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor<\/a>. Bitcoin has long been considered the digital counterpart to gold. But according to Michael Saylor, BTC is actually a better asset than the yellow metal. What makes the MicroStrategy CEO say that?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Spot Bitcoin ETFs record $1 billion in net inflows in 24 hours: a record<\/a>. Spot Bitcoin ETFs are breaking a new record, registering a net inflow of over $1 billion, contributing to Bitcoin's price surge toward new highs. This record highlights the accelerating adoption of Bitcoin and its ETFs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Bitcoin (BTC) in retirement funds? That could soon happen in Arizona<\/a>. In the United States, the Arizona Senate is currently reviewing a proposal to integrate Bitcoin (BTC) into retirement funds. A small revolution, which is due to the recent approval of spot ETFs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

BlackRock plans to integrate spot Bitcoin ETFs into its Global Allocation Fund<\/a>. BlackRock, the asset manager with over $10 trillion in assets, is taking another step toward integrating Bitcoin into its investment portfolio. The company recently submitted a filing with the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to integrate Spot Bitcoin ETFs into its Global Allocation Fund.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MetaMask: soon a Mastercard? Tests reportedly underway. <\/a>Based on marketing documents seen by CoinDesk, the teams behind the Web3 wallet MetaMask are currently testing a cryptocurrency payment card. What do we know at present?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fundamental Analysis<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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Bitcoin's price over the last six years in euros and on a logarithmic scale.
Source : https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/fr<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n

At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 72,129 $ (on 03\/15\/24).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The countdown to the wealth transfer has begun<\/span> !<\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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Since my last letter, Bitcoin has reached a new all-time high of 72,300 $.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


The chart below highlights the moments when long-term token holders tend to sell to new buyers. This trend generally manifests when prices exceed their previous all-time high. When there are clear shifts in behavior between long-term holders and speculators, reflecting patterns similar to those of previous cycles, the chart turns green.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


These phases stretch over several months and take place while all-time highs follow one another. It seems that we are currently in a phase of mild euphoria, a bit early compared to previous cycles. However, the introduction of Bitcoin ETFs as well as the Halving is facilitating this progress compared to earlier cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The euphoria zones on Bitcoin
Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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We can also see this phenomenon of the beginning wealth transfer from older investors to younger ones. Those who accumulated BTC at lower prices several months or even years ago are increasing their selling pressure as new all-time highs are reached, as explained in the previous paragraph.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


This transfer of wealth is once again underway, with the share of wealth held by young coins having increased by 138 % since October 2023. This points to a clear trend of disinvestment by longer-term investors who previously held their coins for more than 3 months. We are at the beginning of this trend, which could persist for some time and gather momentum.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Capital raised by an investor cohort
Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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We can clearly notice the blue and red semi-circles which are phenomena that repeat with each cycle. The countdown to the wealth transfer has begun.<\/span><\/strong> This transfer will end when the newcomers are exhausted and too scarce to absorb the tokens of the former investors who have become sellers.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Long-term and short-term holders on Bitcoin
Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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The beginnings of a craze for DeFi on Bitcoin? <\/u><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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It is possible that we are witnessing the emergence of decentralized finance (DeFi) on Bitcoin. I am keeping a close eye on this development, given that building on Bitcoin is more difficult than on blockchains such as Ethereum. Furthermore, liquidity is already well established on Ethereum. However, this is a topic to watch closely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


Especially since some solutions are viable without requiring modifications to the base layer, which is crucial for the development of DeFi on Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Is the impact of the halving already priced into the price of Bitcoin?<\/u><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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According to the efficient market theory, if we all know something is going to happen, then prices have already factored it in. The answer is yes... but no. This can be summed up by two phrases attributed to Warren Buffett on the dogma:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u00abMarkets are almost always efficient, but the difference between \u2018almost\u2019 and \u2018always\u2019 is worth 80 billion dollars to me\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\nWarren Buffett<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

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\u00abInvesting in a market where people believe in efficiency is like playing bridge with someone who is told that looking at the cards is useless\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\nWarren Buffett<\/cite><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

In short, although most people are aware of the halving scheduled around April 20, 2024, and the reduction in the issuance of new Bitcoins, the \u00absupply shock\u00bb is likely to happen anyway, mechanically driving prices up. Especially with Bitcoin ETFs absorbing all the BTC available on the markets.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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4.22 % of all bitcoins are held in spot Bitcoin ETFs <\/span><\/h4>\n\n\n\n
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Spot Bitcoin ETFs continue to buy Bitcoins to meet their clients' demand. Since their launch on January 10, 2024, the 11 ETFs have acquired 4.22 % of the total available BTC, representing nearly 56 billion dollars in total. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is important to put this into perspective, because Grayscale already held $43.94 billion converted into spot ETFs, but this still represents a significant influx of $12 billion in just over 2 months, excluding Grayscale. This aspect is crucial, as it demonstrates the ultimate acceptance of Bitcoin as a new regulated and diversifying asset class.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Spot Bitcoin ETF
Source : Sosovalue<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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It is interesting to note that dollar inflows into Bitcoin ETFs increased significantly and at a faster pace during their second month of existence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Inbound dollar influx into bitcoin ETFs
Source : Sosovalue<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Our service<\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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We do not engage in daily algorithmic trading; we focus exclusively on long-term investments in projects we know and understand. Our monthly portfolio rebalancing is accompanied by an in-depth analysis of the assets, with a particular focus on their tokenomics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out our website: https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For any questions, observations, or if you would like to learn more about our services, please feel free to contact us by email at tristan.g@crypto-assets-management.com<\/a> or to schedule a brief phone call afterwards this link.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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