{"id":2711,"date":"2024-05-21T14:09:55","date_gmt":"2024-05-21T12:09:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/letter\/lettre-n37-le-halving-clock-les-etf-ethereum-eth-au-comptant-potentiellement-acceptes\/"},"modified":"2026-09-10T15:31:49","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T13:31:49","slug":"letter-n37-the-halving-clock-spot-ethereum-eth-etfs-potentially-approved","status":"publish","type":"letter","link":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/en\/letter\/lettre-n37-le-halving-clock-les-etf-ethereum-eth-au-comptant-potentiellement-acceptes\/","title":{"rendered":"Letter No. 37: The \u00abHalving Clock\u00bb; Spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs potentially approved?"},"content":{"rendered":"

Hello everyone,<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The purpose of this letter is to inform you about the current situation of the crypto-asset market as well as recent news in this field. This letter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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News<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Spot Bitcoin ETF: Wisconsin state buys $164 million worth<\/a>. The State of Wisconsin Investment Board (SWIB) has invested approximately $164 million in spot Bitcoin ETFs, notably BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT) and Grayscale's GBTC. A positive sign that could encourage other major institutions to follow the same path?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

CME Group is considering competing with Coinbase and Binance by launching a Bitcoin spot market<\/a>. CME Group, the world's largest derivatives exchange, plans to introduce spot Bitcoin trading, according to a Financial Times report. This initiative could transform traditional investors' access to BTC and compete with major cryptocurrency exchanges.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

RWA Tokenization: Chainlink and DTCC unveil pilot project tested by major banks<\/a>. Chainlink (LINK) and the Depository Trust & Clearing Corporation (DTCC) have introduced a new pilot system called Smart NAV. Tested by major financial players such as BNY Mellon, Franklin Templeton, and JP Morgan, what does it consist of?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

JPMorgan: the top US bank is now investing in Bitcoin (BTC) ETFs.<\/a> JPMorgan, the largest American bank, recently unveiled its exposure to spot Bitcoin ETFs, financial products that track the price of Bitcoin. This news made waves in the cryptocurrency world, raising questions about the growing involvement of traditional financial institutions in this sector.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

MakerDAO unveils PureDai, a new fully decentralized stablecoin<\/a>. MakerDAO, the organization behind the stablecoin DAI, is reportedly developing PureDai, another fully decentralized stablecoin. Why?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ethereum (ETH): Vitalik Buterin presents EIP-7702 \u2014 Why would this be a major breakthrough?<\/a>. With the aim of efficiently developing account abstraction on Ethereum (ETH), Vitalik Buterin introduced EIP-7702. What new features would be introduced by this proposal?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fundamental Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"crypto
Bitcoin's price over the last six years in euros and on a logarithmic scale.
Source : https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/fr<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 66,315 $ (on 05\/16\/24).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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The \u00abHalving Clock\u00bb:<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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By analyzing the impact of halvings and the stock-to-flow ratio, the investment fund Pantera Capital was able to anticipate a maximum Bitcoin price of around 117,000 $ in the middle of 2025 for this bull market. We share their hypothesis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This exercise is complex and many analysts, investors, and investment funds engage in it. Of course, this should not be taken for granted as no one can predict the future. However, studying theoretical targets can help us better understand a cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"crypto
The Bitcoin halving cycles.
Pantera Capital<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Bitcoin even surpassed their expectations, notably thanks to the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs in the United States in early 2024. This was a huge success. Since then, Bitcoin has outperformed most other cryptocurrencies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"crypto
Bitcoin cycle forecast based on the halving.
Pantera Capital.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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It is interesting to make price projections, but it is just as relevant to estimate time frames. Sometimes, we can identify the best selling periods by using a \u00abcountdown\u00bb based on previous historical cycles.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Here below is one of our internal indicators that we called the \u00abHalving Clock\u00bb:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"crypto
Bitcoin cycles based on halving. Source: Internal<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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This indicator, based solely on a countdown of previous cycles, has worked very well so far. When it gets close to 0, it indicates that we are approaching the lowest point of the cycle, and conversely, when it gets close to 1, it indicates that we are approaching the highest point of the cycle.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This indicator does not take the current price of Bitcoin into account. It only considers the average durations of previous cycles. It anticipates a peak between April and July 2025 without predicting a price.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Spot Ethereum (ETH) ETFs potentially approved? <\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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While drafting this letter, important news broke: a potential turn of events regarding SEC approval of spot ETH ETFs.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The probability of spot Ethereum ETF approval is increasing sharply.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That is what two well-known Bloomberg ETF analysts stated, even though everyone expected the SEC to reject the applications.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00abJames Seyffart and I are raising our odds of a spot Ether ETF approval to 75% (up from 25% initially), after hearing rumors this afternoon that the SEC might do a 180-degree turn on this (increasingly political) issue, causing everyone to scramble now (like us, everyone had assumed they would be denied).\u00bb<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Eric Balchunas, Senior Analyst ETF, Bloomberg<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Thus, it is likely that new applications for spot Ether ETFs will be filed in the coming days. Here is the current list of the various entities that have applied for a spot Ethereum ETF:<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Ethereum
Timeline of important dates for spot Ethereum ETF applications<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Before this information was announced, we were writing an article about Ethereum (ETH), whose performance is currently lagging behind that of BTC and its own previous cycles. We believe there is strong catch-up potential. ETH tends to outperform in the second half of cycles, as is often the case for the entire Altcoin market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The potential approval of a spot ETH ETF could also support this dynamic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

<\/div>\n\n\n\n
\"crypto
ETH price performance since the last cycle low.
Glassnode<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Our service<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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We offer a discretionary portfolio management service specializing in digital assets. We provide comprehensive, end-to-end human support in this space by personalizing your portfolio allocation according to your risk profile and situation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With our turnkey management approach, you can take advantage of industry trends without worrying about digital asset selection, in-depth token research, volatility, arbitrage, and more. You simply need to review your monthly reports and invest regularly, adopting a long-term perspective (4 years and more).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

We do not engage in daily algorithmic trading; we focus exclusively on long-term investments in projects we know and understand. Our monthly portfolio rebalancing is accompanied by an in-depth analysis of the assets, with a particular focus on their tokenomics.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Check out our website: https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

For any questions, observations, or if you would like to learn more about our services, please feel free to contact us by email at tristan.g@crypto-assets-management.com<\/a> or to schedule a brief phone call afterwards this link.<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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