{"id":2694,"date":"2025-02-19T11:47:41","date_gmt":"2025-02-19T10:47:41","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/letter\/fin-de-cycle-ou-poursuite-du-cycle\/"},"modified":"2026-09-10T15:31:49","modified_gmt":"2026-09-10T13:31:49","slug":"end-of-cycle-or-continuation-of-the-cycle","status":"publish","type":"letter","link":"https:\/\/www.mereau-finance.com\/en\/letter\/fin-de-cycle-ou-poursuite-du-cycle\/","title":{"rendered":"Letter No. 45: Political Evolution in the U.S.; End or Continuation of the Bitcoin Cycle?"},"content":{"rendered":"

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The objective of this newsletter, \u00abPolitical evolution & End of cycle or continuation of the cycle?\u00bb, is to inform you about the current crypto-asset market situation as well as recent news in this field. This newsletter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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News<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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$23.5 billion in Bitcoin (BTC) inflows? This scenario could happen according to VanEck.<\/a> As more initiatives regarding local Bitcoin (BTC) reserves emerge in the United States, VanEck estimates that this could bring $23.5 billion in liquidity into the ecosystem. How is this figure estimated?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The giant Barclays invests 131 million dollars in BlackRock's Bitcoin ETF.<\/a> The interest of financial institutions in Bitcoin continues to grow. British bank Barclays has just joined the fray with a $131 million investment in BlackRock\u2019s spot Bitcoin ETF. This decision marks a turning point in the institutional adoption of digital assets and reinforces the credibility of the cryptocurrency market in the eyes of the world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Crypto exchange Coinbase doubled its revenues in 2024<\/a>. Coinbase, one of the leading cryptocurrency exchanges, has announced record financial results for the fourth quarter of 2024. Driven by a booming market and favorable macroeconomic conditions, the company recorded spectacular growth by doubling its revenue year-over-year.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cryptocurrencies will be on X before the end of the year, according to Fireblocks<\/a>. Cryptocurrency payments will be available on X before the end of the year. This is what Ran Goldi of Fireblocks predicts, as we recently learned that the \u00abSuper App\u00bb envisioned by Elon Musk is expected to materialize with the release of X Money, during the year 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unichain: Uniswap's Layer 2 mainnet is now live<\/a>. After introducing its own layer 2 last fall, Uniswap (UNI) launched the Unichain mainnet this week. Will this new network manage to stand out from the competition?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u2013<\/p>\n\n\n\n

2 billion dollars: Goldman Sachs continues to accumulate crypto ETFs.<\/a> Goldman Sachs continues to show a strong appetite for cryptocurrencies. The financial institution indeed increased its crypto ETF holdings by 120 % during the last quarter. Institutional investors' interest in the subject does not seem to be fading.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fundamental Analysis<\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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Bitcoin's price over the last six years in euros and on a logarithmic scale.
Source :\u00a0https:\/\/www.coingecko.com\/fr<\/a><\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Letter No. 45: Political Evolution in the U.S.; End or Continuation of the Cycle?<\/h1>\n\n\n\n
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At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 91,985 $ (02\/17\/25).<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Political and regulatory evolution in the United States<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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In 2025, the digital asset industry is experiencing a new phase of rapid growth, driven by a favorable convergence between market dynamics and evolving regulatory frameworks. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

In the United States, cryptocurrencies hold an important place in public debate, while the influence of the \u00abcrypto vote\u00bb appears to have played a key role during the recent elections. This transformation is not limited to the political sphere: in just a few weeks, concrete progress has been made, paving the way for clearer regulation that is favorable to innovation and entrepreneurial development. The political and regulatory framework surrounding digital assets is undergoing major change. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

This long-awaited clarification is drawing approval from the industry, which had long been calling for a structured and balanced framework. Until now, the sector was operating in a paradoxical situation: speculative, low-value-added projects, such as memecoins, were thriving effortlessly, while genuinely innovative initiatives faced numerous regulatory barriers. The establishment of a comprehensive legislative framework could reverse this trend by fostering an ecosystem more oriented toward value creation and technological progress. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

While Europe positions itself as a regulatory champion to attract players in the sector, the United States appears to opt for a more pragmatic and flexible approach, potentially offering more favorable ground for the long-term development of the crypto industry. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

These political and regulatory developments mark a crucial turning point for cryptocurrencies. From now on, opposing their rise presents a greater risk than embracing them. The chart below highlights the growing adoption of crypto worldwide over the past seven years.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Number
Number of crypto-asset users worldwide.
Source : Blockchain statistics<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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End of cycle or continuation of the cycle? <\/strong><\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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The Bitcoin cycle continues its evolution progressively, and we are currently in the mature phase<\/strong> of this bull market.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

To better analyze the situation, we can compare the performance of this cycle with that of the previous four cycles. It is natural to observe a progressive decrease in performance from one cycle to the next. According to the chart, it would seem that a final euphoric bull phase is missing. Will it materialize? At this stage, no one can predict with certainty.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Political
Bitcoin price performance since each halving (Source: Glassnode).<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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This chart must be put into perspective with the second one (1 Year HODL Wave), which illustrates the proportion of long-term Bitcoin holders (>1 year). It highlights the \u00abwaves\u00bb of distribution observed during each bull cycle, characterized by an increase in short-term volumes when prices rise. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Unlike previous cycles marked by distinct phases of wealth transfer, the current cycle appears to unfold in successive stages. This dynamic is illustrated by the two identifiable distribution plateaus in early 2024 and late 2024, during which a significant portion of long-term holders sold their positions to the buying pressure exerted by the newly launched Bitcoin ETFs in the United States.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now, a crucial question remains: is a third distribution tier likely? This seems possible in the event of a new all-time high beyond 110,000 $ per Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Conversely, a significant break below the 80,000 $ could signal a premature end to this bull market cycle. These two key levels (110,000 $ to the upside and 80,000 $ to the downside) therefore represent critical price zones to monitor in order to anticipate future market dynamics. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Political
Bitcoin price in green on a log scale & 1-year HODL wave (Source: Glassnode).<\/em><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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The continuous growth of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States<\/h3>\n\n\n\n
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The evolution of the number of Bitcoins held through US Bitcoin ETFs is illustrated below. We observe a notable progression, marked by an accelerated increase starting in October\/November 2024, a period during which the US political climate was particularly favorable to Bitcoin.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

This period also coincides with a strong appreciation of the Bitcoin price, highlighting the significant correlation between the two phenomena. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Bitcoin
Number of Bitcoins held in US Bitcoin ETFs.
Source : Dune<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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It is important to emphasize that the launch of Bitcoin ETFs in the United States was the largest launch ever, even surpassing, in terms of assets under management, gold ETFs. The latter were launched in November 2004, 20 years ago, but were surpassed by Bitcoin ETFs in their very first year of existence!<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\"Bitcoin
Comparison of the gold ETF and the Bitcoin ETF since their inception.
K33 Research<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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Our service<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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At Crypto Assets Management, we offer discretionary portfolio management of digital assets, tailored to your profile. Our strategy is based on the analysis and management of Bitcoin cycles (historically 4 years)<\/strong>, favoring investments in long term<\/strong>, monthly arbitrations, and a particular emphasis on tokenomics.<\/strong>
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Our website<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n

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Our Rates<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n
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\"Our<\/figure>\n\n\n\n
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*Learn more about our pricing policy<\/a><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Book an Appointment<\/a><\/div>\n<\/div>\n\n\n\n
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We are <\/em>saved<\/strong> with the AMF under the registration number for digital asset buy\/sell activities against legal tender and digital asset exchange against other digital assets: E2023-084.<\/a><\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u2014 Warning \u2014<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

This is not investment advice, no one can predict the future.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

You are solely responsible for your investment decisions.<\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n

We are not responsible for losses following a decision made on the basis of<\/em> information in this letter.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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