The purpose of this newsletter, «End of the Bitcoin cycle or fourth wave up? Are market cycles a thing of the past?», is to inform you about the current crypto-asset market situation as well as recent news in this field. This letter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.
News
Announced end of the US «shutdown»? The crypto market reacts upwards. The US government has been paralyzed for over a month, in what appears to be the longest shutdown in US history—a situation that could finally come to an end following a recent agreement between Democrats and Republicans.
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45% of ETF investors plan to gain exposure to cryptocurrencies over the next year. Since the approval of spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs on the US market in early 2024, exchange-traded funds applied to cryptocurrencies have been on a roll. This adoption could accelerate significantly over the coming year.
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More than half of hedge funds have invested in crypto. According to a recent report, cryptocurrencies are attracting increasing interest from traditional investment structures like hedge funds. More than half of them are already actively exposed to cryptocurrencies, and this is only the beginning.
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«We are making the United States the Bitcoin superpower»: Donald Trump reaffirms his pro-crypto ambitions. On Wednesday in Miami, Donald Trump touched upon cryptocurrencies during a long speech, claiming to make «the United States the Bitcoin superpower.» Let's take a closer look at his remarks.
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Exaion: a French offer could block the buyout by MARA. The acquisition of Exaion by Mara, an American Bitcoin miner, raises concerns regarding France's digital sovereignty. While the transaction is still awaiting approval, a French counter-offer is reshaping the landscape, led by industry players wishing to keep this strategic infrastructure under national control.
Fundamental Analysis
Source : https://www.coingecko.com/fr
Letter No. 47: End of the Bitcoin cycle or fourth wave up? Is the time of cycles over?
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 100,931 $ (on 11/07/25).
The probabilities of a bearish continuation are increasing
This bull market has currently been going on since November 2022; we have now been rising continuously for 3 years.. The price of Bitcoin was around 15,000 $ three years ago. We are currently in a very mature bull market that is struggling to stay above the cost basis of short-term holders, which resulted in a sharp drop to around 100,000 $, or about 11 % below this key threshold of 112,500 $.
Historically, such significant discounts relative to this level have increased the likelihood of a continued decline toward lower structural supports, such as the realized price of active investors, currently near 88,500 $ . This indicator tracks the real-time cost basis of the circulating supply and has often served as a crucial reference point during prolonged corrective phases in previous cycles.
Stepping back and analyzing past cycles (below), we can clearly observe the distribution and accumulation phases of long-term holders. In the current cycle, as illustrated in the previous chart, there have been three waves of distribution and accumulation, unlike previous cycles which only had one wave.
Generally speaking, these investors gradually accumulate bitcoins when prices fall and intensify their purchases during marked corrections. Currently, long-term holders appear to be ready to begin a new phase of accumulation, which historically lasts between six months and a year at the end of a cycle. This accumulation phase will likely appear when prices drop. Subsequently, their accumulation will continue, but at a slower pace throughout the intercycle period.
This leads us to consider two scenarios for the continuation of this cycle:
- A consolidation phase that could still last a few months, followed by a fourth wave of price increases, resulting in a new distribution by long-term holders and marking the end of the current cycle before they begin a major accumulation phase later.
- A sharper correction, with the price of Bitcoin breaking through 97,000 $ per Bitcoin, would mark the end of this cycle and the beginning of a new strong accumulation by long-term holders gradually as prices fall.
We Let's lean toward the second hypothesis instead. because long-term holders appear to be stepping up their selling already. And inflows of new capital, particularly via ETFs, have slowed significantly.
A drop below 97,000 $ would signal a bear market, while a break above 114,000 $ would pave the way for potential new records. In any case, caution remains advisable in the short term.
Assuming a bear market, it could extend over a period of 10 to 12 months, with a final target between 50,000 and 60,000 dollars. This scenario may seem improbable, but if it were to materialize, it would remain entirely normal and common in the Bitcoin lifecycle.
The time markers of Bitcoin cycles
There are several ways to analyze the rhythm of Bitcoin cycles.
The first is to observe the cycles from the date of each halving, which, I remind you, is the event written into the Bitcoin protocol that causes the creation of new currency to be halved every four years.
The second approach involves measuring the cycle starting from the highest point from the previous bull market.
Finally, the third consists of observing it from the latest lowest point of the current cycle.
| Cycles | End of cycle in number of days after the Halving | End of cycle from the previous cycle top | End of cycle from the cycle low |
| 2012 | 366 Days | 902 Days | 775 Days |
| 2016 | 526 Days | 1472 Days | 1068 Days |
| 2020 | 546 Days | 1424 Days | 1061 Days |
| Current cycle / today | 571 Days? | 1464 Days? | 1081 Days? |
Based on this table, we can see that we are in an average duration that is entirely consistent with the end of a cycle. This scenario would therefore not be particularly surprising.
Here is a graphical visualization of the overlapping price charts of previous Bitcoin cycles. Logically, we notice that the strength of each cycle tends to decrease over time, as it is harder to grow a market that has become larger. On the other hand, in terms of duration, the cycles remain relatively regular.
Have Bitcoin's cycles come to an end?
Can we envision the end of Bitcoin cycles, which are often considered predictable and too regular?
It should first be recalled that previous cycles were also identified and anticipated, without this preventing their repetition. Their form has certainly evolved, but their general rhythm has remained similar.
On the other hand, the argument related to the halving and the progressive decrease of its impact on the total number of bitcoins already in circulation remains entirely relevant.
That being said, the markets are ultimately just the average result of the behaviors of all participants. If the majority continues to believe in the existence of cycles, then many will sell in order to buy back later, thus mechanically helping to recreate those very same cycles.
The market, however, has evolved profoundly and has become considerably more mature compared to previous cycles. The new players—investment funds, corporate treasuries, or investors via ETFs—do not participate in this market with a short-term mindset. Institutional investors operate on much longer investment horizons and possess resources vastly superior to those already committed to Bitcoin.
The answer to this question is then: we don't know anything about it for now.
The next two years will make things clearer. In the meantime, our priority remains the preservation of our clients' capital, until further notice. If our analysis proves to be wrong, we will have missed only a marginal part of the bull market. Conversely, if it is confirmed, we will have effectively protected our clients' portfolios.
Our service
At Crypto Assets Management, we offer discretionary portfolio management of digital assets, tailored to your profile. Our strategy is based on the analysis and management of Bitcoin cycles (historically 4 years), favoring investments in long term, monthly arbitrations, and a particular emphasis on tokenomics.
Our Rates
Mereau Finance (Crypto Assets Management) is registered as a Digital Asset Service Provider (DASP) with the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) under the number : E2023-084.
— Warning —
This letter is not investment advice.
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions.
Investing in digital assets carries a risk of capital loss, partial or total.
