The objective of this newsletter, «Political evolution & End of cycle or continuation of the cycle?», is to inform you about the current crypto-asset market situation as well as recent news in this field. This newsletter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.
News
83 % of institutional investors plan to increase their exposure to cryptocurrencies. In 2025, institutional investors fully intend to strengthen their presence in the cryptocurrency market. According to a study conducted by Coinbase and EY-Parthenon, 83 % of them plan to increase their digital asset allocation in the coming months. This trend is driven by the rise of Bitcoin ETFs, stablecoins, and DeFi.
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Elon Musk denounces «magic money computers» within the US government. Elon Musk, senior advisor to President Donald Trump and head of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE), claims to have seen with his own eyes 14 «magic money computers» within the U.S. federal government: machines allegedly capable of issuing payments without any real financial backing, prompting him to take control of the country's finances.
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According to Donald Trump, the United States will «dominate crypto» and become «the undisputed Bitcoin superpower». This afternoon, Donald Trump spoke at the Blockworks Digital Assets Summit before a panel of blockchain and cryptocurrency enthusiasts. A brief speech that appears to have been generally disappointing.
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USDT: Tether is the 7th largest buyer of US Treasury bills, ahead of Canada and Germany. With a market capitalization of over $145 billion, USDT dominates the stablecoin market. To guarantee its parity with the dollar, Tether places its reserves in US debt, to the point of ranking among the world's leading buyers of Treasury bills in 2024.
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The Aave DAO is preparing one of the biggest changes in its history. With its latest DAO proposal, Aave is well on its way to becoming the titan of decentralized finance. Modifications to the reward system for stakers, increased security against risks, and even acting as a service provider for other protocols. Aave is ushering in a new era in DeFi.
Fundamental Analysis
Source : https://www.coingecko.com/fr
Letter No. 46: Two scenarios for what follows; The digital gold rush
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 85,785 $ (on 03/28/25).
Two scenarios for the sequel
The chart below illustrates the behavior of long-term holders, who largely distributed their Bitcoin tokens (-929,000 BTC, red zone) during the first bull wave triggered by the launch of the ETFs in early 2024.
Subsequently, the market stabilized before beginning a gradual plateau decline. During this phase, these same investors began reaccumulating some of the previously sold tokens (+817,000 BTC, green zone).
A similar pattern repeated during the winter of 2024, with a sale of 1.11 million BTC followed by a gradual buyback phase. This dynamic reflects a cycle marked by successive periods of euphoria and consolidation, a healthier model than the older cycles, which were often dominated by excessive euphoria followed by a brutal correction.
Stepping back and analyzing the past cycles (below), the distribution and accumulation phases of long-term holders are clearly observable. In the current cycle, as illustrated in the previous chart, two major waves of distribution and accumulation have taken place, unlike previous cycles which had only a single wave.
Generally speaking, these investors gradually accumulate bitcoins when prices fall and intensify their purchases during marked corrections. Currently, long-term holders appear to have begun a new accumulation phase, which historically lasts between six months and a year at the end of a cycle. Subsequently, their accumulation continues, but at a slower pace throughout the inter-cycle period.
This leads us to consider two scenarios for the remainder of this cycle:
- A consolidation phase that could last a few more months, followed by a third wave of price increases, leading to a new distribution by long-term holders and marking the end of the current cycle before they begin a major accumulation phase.
- A sharper correction, which would signal the end of the cycle and the beginning of a new strong accumulation phase by long-term holders.
We lean rather toward the second hypothesis because long-term holders seem to be already intensifying their purchases. Conversely, in the middle of 2024, their accumulation was more modest and translated into a «plateau» trend.
In any case, in the short term, caution remains the order of the day.
The digital gold rush in the very long term
In the very long term, we are witnessing a true digital gold rush that is Bitcoin. Large companies, whether public or private, are gradually accumulating bitcoins over the years in order to gain exposure to this long-term store of value.
Trust in this asset continues to grow, which reinforces the probability of success for the Bitcoin project. The more this probability increases, the more its price appreciates year after year. Once Bitcoin has fully achieved its adoption, it will reach a sort of valuation ceiling measured in gold (because if its value is measured in inflationary currency, which continues to depreciate, its price will never stop rising).
Bitcoin will therefore reach an extremely high valuation once the risk associated with investing in it has almost disappeared.
The majority of institutional holders are made up of ETFs, representing about 45 %, followed by public companies such as MicroStrategy and Coinbase. Governments hold about 15 %, followed by private companies and a few contracts in DeFi.
The US Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
The President of the United States officially established, by executive order on March 6, 2025, a strategic bitcoin reserve. This reserve does not concern the direct purchase of bitcoins on behalf of the United States, but rather reflects a political will to never sell the bitcoins already held by the country, neither those it has acquired so far, nor those it might acquire in the future through legal seizures.
Many market participants expressed some disappointment, hoping for an announcement of direct Bitcoin purchases by the United States. However, it appears that the approach is primarily to preserve existing resources and avoid adding to a budget that is already in the process of recovery.
Seven years ago, when I discovered digital assets, the idea of the United States publicly addressing this topic seemed unimaginable, just like the idea of major public companies doing the same. Today, seven years later, we see private companies, public companies, and nation-states, including the United States, discussing and accumulating Bitcoin reserves! The long term moves very fast!
Our service
At Crypto Assets Management, we offer discretionary portfolio management of digital assets, tailored to your profile. Our strategy is based on the analysis and management of Bitcoin cycles (historically 4 years), favoring investments in long term, monthly arbitrations, and a particular emphasis on tokenomics.
Our Rates
We are saved with the AMF under the registration number for digital asset buy/sell activities against legal tender and digital asset exchange against other digital assets: E2023-084.
— Warning —
This letter is not investment advice.
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions.
Investing in digital assets carries a risk of capital loss, partial or total.
