The objective of this letter« Dead cat bounce? – Opportunity for institutions? – Dollar, gold, and Bitcoin »is to inform you about the current situation of the crypto-asset market as well as recent news in this field. This letter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.
News
This bank advises investing up to 3 % of your portfolio in Bitcoin (BTC).. As the financial sector increasingly turns toward cryptocurrencies, the Brazilian bank íon Itaú recommends up to a 3 % allocation in Bitcoin (BTC). Let's take a closer look.
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Being forced to declare crypto wallets: why is it dangerous? An amendment recently adopted by a National Assembly committee calls for the mandatory declaration of self-hosted crypto wallets to the tax authorities. Experts consider this requirement unfounded, and it risks exposing their owners even further to the risk of kidnapping.
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The US removes cryptos from its risk radar, a 180-degree turn compared to Europe. The U.S. Financial Stability Oversight Council (FSOC) removed cryptocurrencies from its list of potential dangers to the financial system in its annual report published on December 11, 2025. This pivot contrasts with the warnings of the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) and the strict MiCA regulation implemented in Europe.
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France is not in the top 20 countries leading crypto adoption. A comprehensive report on cryptocurrency adoption has just been published to provide a detailed global overview and identify the most active countries in the field. Singapore and the United States lead the way, while France does not even rank in the top 20.
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A US administration wants to force banks to serve crypto clients. Cryptocurrency-related companies have historically encountered difficulties in accessing banking services—an injustice highlighted by the Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) of the United States, which has issued a warning to Wall Street.
Fundamental Analysis
Letter No. 48: Dead cat bounce? – Opportunity for institutions? – Dollar, gold and Bitcoin
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 90,800 $ (on 01/20/26).
The “dead cat bounce”? A striking resemblance
A dead cat bounce is a technical pattern that resembles a temporary price recovery within a downtrend.
It is highly likely that we are in this type of configuration. We would have entered a bear market since early October 2025 and we would have witnessed a rebound from 80,000 $ to 98,000 $, before continuing our journey in a bear market.
We had witnessed this same pattern during the last cycle, over the January – March 2022 period (red circle on the left):
Aside from the charts, Bitcoin's network fundamentals show underlying fragility. The market is vulnerable to a sharp price repricing based on liquidity conditions. Long-term holder distribution has slowed down, but could resume. Market uncertainty is evident and will also depend on global geopolitics.
There is a strong asymmetry between the upward probabilities, compared to the stronger downward probabilities. This dead cat bounce pattern can be invalidated if the price breaks above 101,000 $, which is the least likely scenario.
An opportunity for institutions to catch up in the Bitcoin rush?
This cycle's bear market is an opportunity for traditional finance and institutions to catch up in the Bitcoin race. Due to regulation and the slowness of these investors, this is one of the first times they have been late on an investment. For once, retail investors were the first to benefit from this revolution that is Bitcoin.
This cycle will likely be atypical, due to this phenomenon of Bitcoin rotation from the Satoshi era to institutions, via ETFs. In the chart below, we clearly see the growing share of Bitcoin held via US spot ETFs.
That is why, if we witness a bear market comparable to historical cycles, it could be the the mildest bear market the ecosystem has ever experienced on Bitcoin.
On the other hand, this will not necessarily apply to altcoins: for them, the analysis will remain project by project.
Dedollarization, the return to gold, the ancestral trusted asset: does Bitcoin also have a role to play?»
For a few years now, de-dollarization around the world has been underway, little by little, but the direction is clear. The United States is losing ground in the monetary sector, and its hegemony is diminishing at high speed.
The phenomenon accelerated during President Trump's inauguration: he decided to strengthen the United States at the expense of globalization and American hegemony. He therefore decided to bring industries back to his country, and slowly and progressively abandon the value of the dollar in order to mechanically reduce the US debt, which is breaking records, via inflation (money printing).
The unique advantage the United States has is that when it prints money, a good portion of the dilution of those dollars takes place in foreign countries' reserves.
So, the world pays a part of the US debt when they print, which is why dollar reserves in central banks are gradually dropping.
The main beneficiary of this de-dollarization is gold, the benchmark asset of trust for millennia.
This is the reason why gold should continue to rise as long as the dollar loses ground in global reserves.
The question is: What about Bitcoin? Does it have a place in this new global reserve arbitrage?
The answer is yes, but a very small place. It will take a very long time for Bitcoin to carve out a truly more significant place for itself. We are talking about changing human mindsets regarding shared trust: these are changes that do not happen in just 15 years of existence. It can take 25 years, 50 years, or even 100 years before humanity recognizes this asset in a very significant way in global reserves.
By then, we won't be here anymore, but Bitcoin will.
Our service
At Crypto Assets Management, we offer discretionary portfolio management of digital assets, tailored to your profile. Our strategy is based on the analysis and management of Bitcoin cycles (historically 4 years), favoring investments in long term, monthly arbitrations, and a particular emphasis on tokenomics.
Our Rates
Mereau Finance (Crypto Assets Management) is registered as a Digital Asset Service Provider (DASP) with the Autorité des marchés financiers (AMF) under the number : E2023-084.
— Warning —
This letter is not investment advice.
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions.
Investing in digital assets carries a risk of capital loss, partial or total.
