The objective of this letter« 2025, the year of the turnaround? »is to inform you about the current situation of the crypto-asset market as well as recent news in this field. This letter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.
News
Toward a more pronounced adoption of strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserves in 2025? Will more and more countries start building strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserves in 2025? To this question, the renowned asset manager Franklin Templeton is categorical: several nations will officially launch the creation of such a reserve.
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Bitcoin’s (BTC) market capitalization will reach 20 % of gold’s in 2025, according to Galaxy Research. Is Bitcoin (BTC) on an upward trajectory for 2025? That is the prediction of Galaxy Research, which estimates that the largest cryptocurrency will see its market capitalization explode. What price could it reach?
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Euro payments down sharply over 10 years according to SWIFT. The greenback, now and forever. While the US dollar (USD) is increasingly used in SWIFT payments, the same cannot be said for the euro, which has seen its usage drop significantly over the last 10 years. How can this be explained?
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Switzerland: an initiative launched in favor of establishing a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve. As more and more countries consider building a strategic Bitcoin (BTC) reserve, several Swiss cryptocurrency advocates have decided to take action. Depending on the popular support they receive, the Swiss National Bank could soon be forced to create this reserve.
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The United States is going to sell $6.5 billion in Bitcoins – is Biden attacking Trump before he takes office? The United States is preparing to liquidate 69,370 BTC, valued at $6.5 billion, seized during the dismantling of Silk Road. This decision, made just days before Donald Trump's inauguration, raises questions about its motivations and potential impacts on the Republican camp's Bitcoin strategy.
Fundamental Analysis
Source : https://www.coingecko.com/fr
Newsletter No. 44: 2025, the year of the turnaround? The stablecoin opportunity
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 93,600 $ (on 01/09/25).
2025: The year of the turnaround?
Prices rose sharply in 2024, as shown in the chart below: the cycle seems to unfold with almost mechanical precision. We anticipate that 2025 will be a favorable year for the crypto industry, marking nonetheless a transition from the bull market to the beginning of a bear market.
We are progressively approaching the peaks of the previous cycles (2018-2022), which, if we transpose their evolution to the current cycle, could occur between March and May 2025. As for the 2015-2018 cycle, its transposed peak would be reached between November and December 2025.
It is generally during these final phases that the price of Bitcoin and altcoins progresses the most rapidly amidst euphoria, before beginning a bear market period estimated at between 12 and 16 months.
The Glassnode chart below illustrates the ratio between long-term holders and short-term holders. It shows a drop around 3.5 (orange line), indicating strong selling pressure from long-term holders. For now, inflows are sufficient to offset outflows, but this situation can only last a few months, especially if prices rise rapidly.
Ultimately, incoming flows (buyers) risk being overwhelmed by outgoing flows (sellers) from long-term holders, as they hold the majority of Bitcoin. This pattern repeats itself regularly.
This latest chart from Glassnode illustrates the holding age of each token. An increase in the light orange zones indicates a rise in tokens held for 1 to 3 months, which reflects a transfer of value from long-term holders to short-term holders.
We are observing an evolution similar to that of previous cycles, which invites caution regarding our market exposure. The complex question is this: where exactly are we in this final phase of the bull market? The more we try to specify the time scale, the greater the risk of error. We nevertheless believe that there is still room for a final upward push.
Entering Phase 2
The price of Bitcoin progresses according to different market phases, as we can see in the chart below from Pantera Capital. Historically, bull markets consist of two main phases:
Phase 1, which corresponds to the first stage, occurs when Bitcoin tends to outperform the rest of the market. This follows a timid return of capital to the «king of digital assets.» Investor confidence is gradually rebuilding after a bear market, and Bitcoin becomes the only asset toward which they are willing to direct their capital.
Phase 2, which corresponds to the second stage, occurs when Altcoins tend to outperform Bitcoin. It is the final phase of a bull market, marked by euphoria. Liquidity then moves from Bitcoin (in profit) to Altcoins. Sometimes, the scale of Altcoin performance is so great that they outperform Bitcoin over the entire duration of the recent cycles.
It would appear that the first signs of this second phase are visible, notably following the recent rise (November 2024) catalyzed by the US elections. We can clearly see the market share of Altcoins rising again. This second phase is generally shorter than the first by 6 to 12 months. Subsequently, 2025 will probably be the year the bull market turns into a bear market.
The opportunity of stablecoins?
Digital assets consist of many sub-categories: utility tokens, NFTs, stablecoins, security tokens, etc. A relatively low-key but essential category for supporting the industry and its adoption is that of stablecoins.
Stablecoins grew from 3 % of blockchain transactions in 2020 to over 50 % of transactions today. They represent one of the ecosystem's most significant value propositions, although they are often overlooked because of their non-speculative nature.
Over the past few years, stablecoins have demonstrated their fundamental utility: cross-border payments. The geographic regions experiencing the strongest growth in stablecoin usage are primarily located in emerging markets, where access to a stable currency to make payments is highly sought after.
Stablecoins offer a value proposition at least ten times greater than that of traditional payment methods. Cross-border transfers represent hundreds of billions of dollars in annual revenue. These transfers are currently undergoing disruptive innovation, being carried out via stablecoins running on blockchain rails!
With this rapid adoption of stablecoins in B2C and B2B payments, the circulating supply of stablecoins and transaction volume are reaching all-time highs!
Stablecoin-focused projects could prove promising. Among the initiatives in our portfolio is USUAL (usual.money), a stablecoin that redistributes the US central bank's interest rate to USUAL token holders, with the ambition of competing with Tether's USDT.
Projects generating tangible revenues will stand out, particularly those related to the theme of fee switch, which could become a strong new narrative. The USUAL project combines these two dynamics: the power of stablecoins and revenue redistribution.
Our service
At Crypto Assets Management, we offer discretionary portfolio management of digital assets, tailored to your profile. Our strategy is based on the analysis and management of Bitcoin cycles (historically 4 years), favoring investments in long term, monthly arbitrations, and a particular emphasis on tokenomics.
Our Rates
We are saved with the AMF under the registration number for digital asset buy/sell activities against legal tender and digital asset exchange against other digital assets: E2023-084.
— Warning —
This is not investment advice, no one can predict the future.
You are solely responsible for your investment decisions.
We are not responsible for losses following a decision made on the basis of information in this letter.
