Hello everyone,
The purpose of this letter is to inform you about the current situation of the crypto-asset market, as well as recent news in this field. This letter is not investment advice, but merely a sharing of my personal point of view.
News
Last week, between April 6 and 9, the Bitcoin conference took place in Miami. This event brought together more than 35,000 people and over 350 speakers, entrepreneurs, and investors from the crypto ecosystem from around the world. It is an important conference because every year since its inception, there have been major announcements for the ecosystem, notably the announcement by President Nayib Bukele to make Bitcoin legal tender in El Salvador.
Here is a summary of the major announcements made during this conference:
- Strike (a Bitcoin payment provider) has partnered with Blackhawk, […] one of the largest alternative payment providers in the world. They have 400,000 storefronts and 37,000 partners. McDonald's, Starbucks, Walmart and other big names will be able to accept Bitcoin payments if they wish. They also have established a partnership with the largest point-of-sale provider on the entire planet, NCR.
- The very popular platform for democratizing access to stocks, Robinhood, deployed a crypto wallet solution for more than 2 million customers on a waitlist. They are also working on adding support for the Lightning Network (secondary layer on the Bitcoin network that enables microtransactions with very low fees).
- Samson Mow, the former chief strategy officer of the Bitcoin development company, Blockstream, stated that a designated economic free zone on the island of Roatán in Honduras and the region of Madeira in Portugal are both ready to «adopt Bitcoin» as a payment method in their territories
- A Mexican senator stated that she was proposing a bill to the Senate that would make Bitcoin legal tender in the country if approved.
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The city of Cannes is going to sell 10 tourist sites in the form of non-fungible tokens (NFTs). The municipality has just announced the creation of a collection of 11 non-fungible tokens (NFTs) representing iconic locations and buildings of the luxury city. One of the NFTs will be given to a resident of Cannes, while the other 10 will be auctioned off. A portion of the proceeds will be used to fund local organizations working to protect the environment.
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Partouche will accept cryptocurrencies in its casinos and is venturing into NFTs and the Metaverse. Thus, the company hopes to implement cryptocurrency payments starting this summer and there are no particular obstacles to this, according to CEO Patrick Partouche: «We are in the process of setting this up, technically and legally it holds water. We will take the most solid cryptos.». He also added: «NFTs are tokens. We’ve been working with tokens for 50 years: we invented them, bought them, sold them, modified them… that’s the core business of casinos!»
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A new report from Finbold indicate that as of today, 686 Bitcoin distributors, or ATMs, were installed worldwide in March 2022.This therefore corresponds to 22 installations per day. In total, there would be 36,733 Bitcoin ATMs worldwide, a figure that continues to skyrocket. Unfortunately, not all regions are equal… fewer than 10 ATMs are in France… but global adoption continues, and in France, we will eventually adopt this payment method as well, but much later, just like with the internet. Here is a chart showing the number of Bitcoin ATM installations worldwide:
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Tax returns are coming soon, and we will very shortly present a «tutorial» article on the steps you need to take to declare your crypto-assets. In the meantime, here are a few key dates:
Here are the dates of the tax calendar in France in 2022 :
- April 7, 2022 : opening of the online declaration service, on the website impots.gouv.fr ;
- May 19, 2022 deadline for filing the paper income tax return ;
- May 25, 2022 deadline for filing online tax returns in zone 1 (departments 01 to 19 and foreign residents); ;
- May 31 online income tax declaration deadline for zone 2 (departments 20 to 54) ;
- June 7, 2022 deadline for online tax return submission in zone 3 (departments 55 to 976).
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Before the fundamental analysis, I would like to share the chart below with you; too many people invest in crypto-assets expecting huge performances in just a few months. Do not take a short-term bus ticket, you might be disappointed, take a long-term journey, the bet is much safer! For those who wish, our service supports you over the long term in order to outperform Bitcoin.
Below is the adoption curve for internet technology (in white) from 1992 to 2006, and (in orange) the adoption curve for blockchain technology and cryptoassets from 2016 to 2030. Comparatively, we are at 1997-98 for the internet. The crypto ecosystem is growing at an average rate of 80 % per year.
We believe that adoption will be faster than for the Internet because the infrastructure is already in place,phones, internet, digital wallet applications) but also the habits of using digital and therefore non-tangible money, (like bank cards, transfers, PayPal, LydiaLet us not forget either that the money in our bank accounts also remains digital, there is no tangible way, only about less than 5 % is tangible (the banknotes and coins in circulation).
Fundamental Analysis
Source : https://www.coingecko.com/fr
At the time of writing, the price of Bitcoin is 41,200 $ (on 04/14/22).
Over recent weeks, we had indeed seen confirmation of returning demand, followed by a price increase. Then, the price refused to break out above its 35-45 k $ range and rapidly re-entered this range by breaking support levels at 44 k $ and 42 k $. We have noticed three things over the past few weeks:
First of all, Monday, April 18 is a tax filing deadline for most US taxpayers, and this sell-off, particularly in USD (US dollars), coincides with this deadline because US tax calculations do not work like they do for us in France. Since the US taxpayer is much more exposed to crypto-assets than we are, it is likely that this had an impact. Today, tax-related selling is probably already over.
Furthermore, we notice no slowdown in purchases from Hodlers (long-term investors), so we think that many weak hands and short-term investors quickly took profits once they reached the top of the 35-45k $ range. This was not selling by Hodlers.
Finally, the selling pressure in the futures markets was very strong and rapid, see below in red. (Futures markets are stock markets where the settlement of buy or sell transactions is deferred over time; these markets are mainly used by institutional investors.Futures markets have a significant impact on the price of Bitcoin, we can see the correlation.
We are in a period where institutions and large investors tend to move towards less risky assets due to the current economic context. But we notice that the BTC network continues its growth, regardless of speculation, bitcoin tokens continue to be bought and preciously guarded. The price is building a solid base in the 35-45 $ range. This is an ideal zone for the launch of a next bullish phase, but we must be patient and wait for a true market reversal.
Here are the remarks from the previous letter with the current comments:
- Long-term cycle (more than 3 months): Demand is flowing into the futures markets, which confirms what we are seeing on-chain data. Lthe request arrives after three months of slow weakening. The signals indicate that we are now in an accumulation zone that characterizes the end of bearish periods. We have to wait a little longer; the recent sell-off in the futures markets has canceled and postponed the start of the bullish reversal we had noticed.).
- Medium-term cycle (3 months): If demand remains stable or continues to rise, a countdown begins for a bullish breakout from the 35,000 $ / 45,000 $ range per bitcoin. The bullish breakout is postponed to a future attempt following this failure; it is also possible that we «test» the bottom of the range in the meantime.).
- Short-term cycle (1 month): The very high amount of stablecoins ready to enter the market at the first sign of a bullish reversal could rapidly propel prices upward out of the 35-45k $ range. Many stablecoins are still waiting for the breakout of this range, the attempt of March 28-29-30 was a false signal, which also created what is called a long squeeze
Note that ETH's on-chain demand remains higher than BTC's. We therefore expect Ethereum to outperform Bitcoin in the coming weeks.
If you have any questions, comments, or would like to know more about our service, please feel free to contact us: crypto.assets.manage@gmail.com
— Warning —
This is not investment advice, no one can predict the future.
You are solely responsible for your own investment decisions.
We are not responsible for any losses resulting from a decision made based on the information in this letter.
